John Cena (2008) - By far the most egregious offender. Cena made an electrifying return from an injury as #30 to earn a feel-good win. Cena at that point had never needed the win, but we let it slide due to his surprising comeback. The baffling booking decision came sooner than later, as he announced that he would be using the title shot at No Way Out, and that’s something I still shake my head at years later. He lost the match via disqualification, which makes the rewarded opportunity even more of a waste, in order to also get Triple H and make the rematch a triple threat – which he also lost.
Randy Orton (2009) - The one with the most promise. After winning, Orton would become the best heel he would ever be. IED Orton was a no-nonsense character, and no doubt he would have had a cathartic victory at Wrestlemania, even if because everyone was tired of Triple H always being champion. But no, Triple H was typical Triple H in the clutch and never allowed Orton to follow through on his momentum.
Edge (2010) - A lot more self-serving, yet logical, than practical. Like Cena, Edge also came back from an injury, although his return was much less of a surprise than Cena’s. Like Orton, Edge also had a lot of momentum going into Wrestlemania and was expected to win, especially considering that he was the face, the lead role in his own feel-good Wrestlemania story. But he would not make a Wrestlemania moment that year, as for some reason Jericho was booked to retain the World Heavyweight Championship.
Alberto del Rio (2011) - After four years of not elevating anybody new (Undertaker won in 2007), the Rumble finally makes (or at least, tries to make) a new star in Alberto del Rio. Granted, he was being railroaded to the top, but a new face is a new face. Del Rio tries to head into Wrestlemania with as much momentum as he can garner, but his babyface-like characterization sabotaged his heat, and he was still not ready by that time. He would lose at Wrestlemania 27’s opening match, but had Edge been diagnosed with his career-ending injury earlier, Del Rio would have undoubtedly gotten his first Wrestlemania moment then.
Four losses, all instrumental in bringing up the overall win/loss record of the title match to 11-9, going back to when the title match stipulation was introduced in 1992. That’s almost half, and it wouldn’t be such a big deal if 1) the losses were meaningful (i.e. Shawn Michaels lost his title match from his first Rumble win in 1995, but ended up reuniting with Diesel), and 2) the losses weren’t back-to-back. The last time somebody lost his title match before Cena in 2008 was the Rock back in 2000 (who technically was part of a Fatal Four-Way, but he was still a Rumble winner in a title match), and the year before that saw Vince McMahon winning and not even going to ‘Mania as a contender, and the year before that saw Steve Austin win his 2nd Rumble and his title match.
Now, I mentioned earlier that this trend is likely going to continue this year. That’s because the logical and emotional favorite to win this year is none other than Chris Jericho. Other names, like Randy Orton and Sheamus, have been thrown into the mix as possible winners, but none of them have as much to gain from a win as Jericho does. He’s part of a storyline all eyes are on, and that storyline ideally seems to rely heavily on the win to progress.
This is where the assumptions gets heavier – if Jericho does win, there’s absolutely no doubt that he’ll be going after CM Punk. And given the progressive wrestling mind that Jericho is, there is no way that he’ll use this angle to put himself over, especially when he knows he’s not the person who needs to be put over. If you haven’t figured it out by now, that means Chris Jericho is losing to CM Punk at Wrestlemania.
And strangely enough, after all that I’ve said here, I would actually be okay with that loss even if it furthers the streak. Mainly because the hypothesis I’ve laid out here is set up in a way that the loss becomes meaningful – the main criterion I’ve been looking for – and not just another seemingly random booking decision. Of course, we’ll always think our opinion, our idea, our way is better than what we’re getting.
So now that’s out of the way, to hell with it. Let the bodies hit the floor.